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Marc Manceau

PhD, Data scientist

Research interests

I am broadly interested in all probabilistic models and statistical methods designed to infer knowledge from biological data.

Modeling in Evolutionary Biology

The rise and fall of populations of pathogens, individuals, or species through time, is accompanied by the evolution of various heritable traits. Mutations accumulate in molecular sequences, and morphological or behavioural characters diverge as well. These various traits can in turn be measured and analyzed by researchers and be used as witnesses of the past.

These processes can happen over very different time-scales. Over large time scales, large enough to see the birth and death of species, we speak of macroevolution. The morphology of fossil species, together with morphological and molecular data associated with extant species, provide for example hints to reconstruct the phylogeny, i.e. the tree displaying genealogical relationships between species. At the other extreme, over the time-scale of an epidemic, infected individuals can be sampled, their symptoms can be recorded, and their pathogens can be sequenced. Molecular sequences are then clues to reconstruct the infection tree, and inform public health policies.

I have worked in particular on models belonging to, or at the interface between, three main categories. (i) models of diversification: they describe the birth and death of individuals through time, governing the law of population dynamics and phylogenetic trees. (ii) models of continuous trait evolution: they describe the evolution of a continuous trait - such as body mass, cranial volume, viral load - through time and along a phylogeny. (iii) models of molecular evolution: they describe the evolution of molecular sequences (most often, DNA sequences) through time and along a phylogeny.

Modeling for Health

I have started to transition from evolutionary biology to Health as a post-doc in Tanja Stadler's lab, where I have been working on models of diversification with more focus on applications to the epidemiology of infectious diseases. I am now a statistician at the Grenoble University Hospital, where I have been learned to apply more straightforward statistical models to both observational data and data stemming from clinical trials.

2025

Liaigre Léa, Guigui Alicia, Manceau Marc, Cracowski Jean-Luc, Khouri Charles, Roustit Matthieu. 2025.
Trial-level surrogacy of non-high-density and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol reduction on the clinical efficacy of statins.
European Heart Journal - Cardiovascular Pharmacotherapy.
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2024

Sosa Cuevas Eleonora, Mouret Stéphane, Vayssière Guillaume, Kerboua Siham, Girard Pauline, Molens Jean-Paul, Manceau Marc, Charles Julie, Saas Philippe, Aspord Caroline . 2024.
Circulating immune landscape in melanoma patients undergoing anti-PD1 therapy reveals key immune features according to clinical response to treatment.
Frontiers in Immunology. 15
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Revol B, Willeman T, Manceau M, Dumestre-Toulet V, Gaulier J-M, Eysseric-Gu{\'e}rin H, al et. 2024.
Trends in fatal poisoning among medical users of analgesics in France from 2013 to 2022: an analysis of the DTA register.
Public Health. 236:381-385
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Guigui Alicia, Liaigre Léa, Manceau Marc, Gaget Olivier, Cracowski Jean-Luc, Blaise Sophie, Khouri Charles, Roustit Matthieu. 2024.
Assessment of digital perfusion as a surrogate outcome in Raynaud’s phenomenon clinical trials.
Rheumatology. 63:1502--1506
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Hlavaty Alex, Roustit Matthieu, Manceau Marc, Cracowski Jean-Luc, Khouri Charles. 2024.
The Christmas adverse event syndrome: An analysis of the WHO pharmacovigilance database.
Therapies. 79:675--679
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Ghelfi Julien, Macek Jilkova Zuzana, Sengel Christian, Brusset Bleuenn, Teyssier Yann, Costentin Charlotte, al et. 2024.
PD1 and TIM3 Expression is Associated with Very Early Hepatocellular Carcinoma Recurrence After Percutaneous Thermal Ablation.
Journal of Hepatocellular Carcinoma. 11:39--50
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Willeman Théo, Grunwald Justine, Manceau Marc, Lapierre Frédéric, Krebs-Drouot Lila, Boudin Coralie, Scolan Virginie, Eysseric-Guerin Hélène, Stanke-Labesque Françoise, Revol Bruno. 2024.
Smartphone swabs as an emerging tool for toxicology testing: a proof-of-concept study in a nightclub.
Clinical Chemistry and Laboratory Medicine (CCLM). 62:1845--1852
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2023

Revol Bruno, Willeman Théo, Manceau Marc, Dumestre-Toulet Véronique, Gaulier Jean-Michel, Fouilhé Sam-Laï Nathalie, Eysseric-Guérin Hélène, Compagnie Nationale des Biologistes et Analystes Experts CNBAE, the French Addictovigilance Network FAN. 2023.
Trends in Fatal Poisoning Among Drug Users in France From 2011 to 2021: An Analysis of the DRAMES Register.
JAMA Network Open. 6:e2331398-e2331398
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2022

Andréoletti Jérémy, Zwaans Antoine, Warnock Rachel C M, Aguirre-Fernández Gabriel, Barido-Sottani Joëlle, Gupta Ankit, Stadler Tanja, Manceau Marc. 2022.
The Occurrence Birth–Death Process for Combined-Evidence Analysis in Macroevolution and Epidemiology.
Systematic Biology. 71:1440-1452
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2021

Manceau Marc. 2021.
The infinite alleles model revisited: a Gibbs sampling approach.
bioRxiv.
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Chen Chaoran, Nadeau Sarah, Topolsky Ivan, Manceau Marc, Huisman Jana S., Jablonski Kim Philipp, al et. 2021.
Quantification of the spread of SARS-CoV-2 variant B.1.1.7 in Switzerland.
Epidemics. 37:100480
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Manceau Marc, Gupta Ankit, Vaughan Timothy, Stadler Tanja. 2021.
The probability distribution of the ancestral population size conditioned on the reconstructed phylogenetic tree with occurrence data.
Journal of Theoretical Biology. 509:110400
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2020

Manceau Marc, Marin Julie, Morlon Hélène, Lambert Amaury. 2020.
Model-Based Inference of Punctuated Molecular Evolution.
Molecular Biology and Evolution. 37:3308-3323
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Gupta Ankit, Manceau Marc, Vaughan Timothy, Khammash Mustafa, Stadler Tanja. 2020.
The probability distribution of the reconstructed phylogenetic tree with occurrence data.
Journal of Theoretical Biology. 488:110115
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2019

Manceau Marc, Lambert Amaury. 2019.
The species problem from the modeler's point of view.
Bulletin of Mathematical Biology. 81:878-898
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2017

Manceau Marc, Lambert Amaury, Morlon Hélène. 2017.
A Unifying Comparative Phylogenetic Framework Including Traits Coevolving Across Interacting Lineages.
Systematic Biology. 66:551-568
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2016

Drury Jonathan, Clavel Julien, Manceau Marc, Morlon Hélène. 2016.
Estimating the effect of competition on trait evolution using maximum likelihood inference.
Systematic Biology. 65:700-710
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Morlon Hélène, Lewitus Eric, Condamine Fabien L., Manceau Marc, Clavel Julien, Drury Jonathan. 2016.
RPANDA: an R package for macroevolutionary analyses on phylogenetic trees.
Methods in Ecology and Evolution. 7:589-597
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2015

Manceau Marc, Lambert Amaury, Morlon Hélène. 2015.
Phylogenies support out-of-equilibrium models of biodiversity.
Ecology Letters. 18:347-356
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