@article{Gascuel-etal_2013, author = {Gascuel, Fanny AND Choisy, Marc AND Duplantier, Jean-Marc AND D{\'e}barre, Florence AND Brouat, Carine}, journal = {PLoS Comput Biol}, publisher = {Public Library of Science}, title = {Host Resistance, Population Structure and the Long-Term Persistence of Bubonic Plague: Contributions of a Modelling Approach in the Malagasy Focus}, year = {2013}, month = {05}, volume = {9}, url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1371%2Fjournal.pcbi.1003039}, pages = {e1003039}, abstract = {Bubonic plague, known to have marked human history by three deadly pandemics, is an infectious disease which mainly circulates in wild rodent populations and is transmitted by fleas. Although this disease can be quickly lethal to its host, it has persisted on long-term in many rodent populations around the world. The reasons for this persistence remain poorly known. Two mechanisms have been invoked, but not yet explicitly and independently tested: first, the spatial structure of rodent populations (subdivision into several subpopulations) and secondly, the presence of, not only plague-susceptible rodents, but also plague-resistant ones. To gain insight into the role of the above two factors in plague persistence, we analysed a mathematical model of plague propagation. We applied our analyses to the case of Madagascar, where plague has persisted on central highlands since the 1920s and is responsible for about 30\% of the human cases worldwide. We found that the long-term persistence of plague can be explained by the presence of any of the above two factors. These results allowed us to propose scenarios to explain the localized presence of plague in the Malagasy highlands, and help understand the persistence of plague in many wild foci.}, number = {5}, doi = {10.1371/journal.pcbi.1003039} }